Nigerian crude oil has come under renewed market pressure following signals that Iran may be willing to reach a nuclear agreement with the United States, raising the prospect of increased global oil supply.
Latest trading data shows Nigerian crude settling at around $68.34 per barrel as of Tuesday—well below the Federal Government’s 2025 oil benchmark. Market sentiment points to a further decline by Thursday, driven by bearish trends among global oil traders.
Oil prices dipped sharply in Thursday’s Asian trading session amid reports of a potential U.S.–Iran nuclear deal. The situation was compounded by an unexpected rise in U.S. crude inventories, sparking fears of an impending oversupply.
Brent crude futures for June delivery dropped to $65 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures slipped by 1.7% to $61.62 per barrel. The downturn ended a four-day rally that had pushed prices to a two-week high, buoyed earlier by easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
Ali Shamkhani, a senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stated that Iran is ready to sign a nuclear agreement with U.S. President Donald Trump if all economic sanctions are lifted. While recent negotiation rounds have reportedly shown progress, scepticism remains due to President Trump’s continued “maximum pressure” approach.
Nigeria has launched the export of its newest crude blend, Obodo, marking a milestone in its upstream oil operations.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) confirmed the debut shipment, with Conoil Producing Limited leading the effort. The Commission’s Chief Executive, Gbenga Komolafe, praised the move as a testament to the increasing competence and impact of local oil operators.
“The Obodo crude blend strengthens Nigeria’s export portfolio and aligns with our strategic goals of increasing production, maximising hydrocarbon potential, and drawing in investment through innovation and strong operational performance,” said Komolafe.
Conoil’s achievement was made possible under a production-sharing agreement with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, bolstered by policies designed to stimulate local growth and participation in the sector.
Nigeria has secured over $8 billion in investment for Deepwater and gas projects over the past year, according to the Special Adviser to the President on Energy, Olu Verheijen. This represents a notable increase from the $6.7 billion reported as 2024’s total energy sector investment.
Verheijen credited the rise to several government reforms, including favourable tax structures, expedited project approvals, regulatory clarity, and policy support for gas-to-power initiatives.
“Nigeria has become a model for successful capital mobilisation in Africa. With strong leadership and reforms, we unlocked over $8 billion in Deepwater and gas investments in under a year,” she noted. “We moved from gridlock to greenlight, making the energy sector commercially viable and globally attractive.”
In a move that unsettled global markets, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a surprise increase of 3.5 million barrels in crude inventories last week, pushing total stockpiles to 441.8 million barrels.
This stands in contrast to analysts’ expectations of a 2-million-barrel decline, heightening concerns of a growing supply glut or weakening demand. The announcement triggered immediate sell-offs in U.S. oil markets, with prices tumbling by over $1 per barrel.
These developments, combined with rising OPEC+ production, are fuelling speculation of an oversupply scenario, weighing heavily on oil markets worldwide.