An industry expert has issued a stark warning about the escalating tariff war led by US President Donald Trump, suggesting it could drastically drive up global iPhone prices—potentially to three times their current cost. The shift, according to the analyst, may also send shockwaves through global supply chains and hit tech consumers worldwide.
Dan Ives, Global Head of Technology Research at Wedbush Securities, said the idea of Apple relocating its entire supply chain to the United States is not only impractical but economically unfeasible. “You build that supply chain in the U.S. with fabrication plants in West Virginia or New Jersey, and you’re looking at $3,500 iPhones,” he said, highlighting the enormous complexity and cost of duplicating Asia’s decades-old tech manufacturing infrastructure.
Trump’s protectionist tariff measures, now fully implemented, are impacting a broad range of imported goods, from electronics to clothing and household appliances. While the administration maintains that the tariffs are designed to boost domestic manufacturing, critics argue the costs are already shifting to consumers and threatening global production models.
Ives estimates that Apple would require at least $30 billion and three years to repatriate even 10% of its supply chain. Such a move would not only be time-consuming but could also erode profit margins and disrupt product timelines, further complicating the company’s global operations.
As one of the most heavily exposed companies in the US-China trade dispute, Apple remains highly dependent on Asian manufacturing. About 90% of iPhones are assembled in China, with essential components like processors and display screens sourced from Taiwan and South Korea. The sustained uncertainty has already taken a toll on Apple’s stock, which has declined by 25% since Trump assumed office—reflecting investor concerns about cost pressures and a slowdown in global demand.
“This is economic Armageddon for the tech industry. No company is more caught up in this Category 5 tariff storm than Apple,” Ives remarked.
To mitigate risks, Apple has initiated a diversification strategy. In 2024, it unveiled a $500 billion investment to expand US operations. At the same time, countries like India and Brazil have emerged as alternative manufacturing bases. While these nations still face tariffs—26% in India and 10% in Brazil—they offer relative political stability compared to the unpredictable dynamics of the US-China trade relationship.
Nevertheless, these new hubs cannot yet match China’s sheer scale and infrastructure. Brazil, in particular, lacks the production capacity required to handle Apple’s vast output.
The implications of this trade battle extend far beyond the US and China, affecting emerging markets like Nigeria. Although Nigeria is not involved in the iPhone manufacturing process, its position as a major importer of smartphones and tech products means it will likely feel the impact of price increases. With weakened consumer purchasing power, the affordability of Apple devices may diminish further, squeezing both consumers and retailers.
Local telecom providers and retailers that offer iPhones as part of bundled service deals could also face shrinking profit margins and declining sales volumes as costs rise.
In a recent CNN interview, Ives reiterated the gravity of the situation: “An iPhone assembled entirely in the United States could retail for as much as $3,500, compared to the current price of around $1,000,” he warned.