Shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk has issued a warning that global container volumes may decline this year due to escalating geopolitical tensions and the ongoing trade conflict, particularly between the United States and its trading partners. Despite these concerns, the company has maintained its profit forecast.
The imposition of trade tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump has led businesses around the world to revise sales expectations and has forced major economies to scale back their growth projections. This shift in the global economic climate has significantly dampened the demand for sea freight.
Maersk, widely regarded as a key indicator of global trade health, has adjusted its forecast for container volumes in 2025. The company now expects growth to fall within a range of -1% to +4%, a considerable downgrade from the initial 4% growth prediction made at the start of the year.
“The outlook for global container demand over the remainder of the year remains highly uncertain, shaped by a rapidly evolving trade policy landscape and increasing recession risks in the United States,” Maersk stated.
Earlier in the year, many firms rushed to ship goods to the U.S. in anticipation of new tariffs, but economists argue that the tariff policy has effectively acted as a demand shock to the global economy, weakening overall economic momentum.
Maersk indicated that some growth may still be possible in the second quarter if businesses take advantage of the 90-day suspension on many planned U.S. tariffs to replenish inventories.
“In the latter part of the year, there is, on the one hand, a growing risk that demand could contract, and on the other the possibility that trade rebounds if tariffs are rolled back,” the company added.
Despite the economic headwinds, Maersk confirmed that it has not yet cancelled any trans-Pacific shipping routes in 2025, although it has opted to reduce vessel sizes on some journeys. Its client base includes major global retailers such as Walmart, Target, and Nike.